Winds of change are blowing at 1 Bills Drive as a new coaching staff is settling in, looking to turn this team around for the 2013 season. It is hard to determine where this staff should begin as they turn over this roster while attempting to cultivate a winning attitude in the locker room.
The acquisitions of Mario Williams and Mark Anderson in free agency last off-season did not have the impact that many expected to see in the 2012 season. Williams finished with a deceptive 10.5 sacks to go with a paltry 37 tackles. Anderson had his season cut short due to injury while tallying only 1 sack in 6 games played. These men were a part of a defense that fell short of expectations and crumbled in the clutch during the season, while sometimes never showing up at all.
The play of quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick left Bills fans unsatisfied, as he took a great deal of blame for the 6-10 campaign in 2012. With 24 TD passes against 16 Interceptions Fitzpatrick managed the game as best he could. Fitz also threw for 3400 yards and completed over 60 percent of his passes, which does not look all that bad on paper. However, his turnovers in key moments of games do not show up in any stat column.
Looking ahead to 2013, let me set aside the disappointment in hiring this new regime charged with coaching up this roster next year. Let me ignore the tremendous lack of significant NFL experience at all three major coaching positions for the moment as well. If you are an optimist, let's just pretend this staff is more of a solution than a problem in 2013. Let's say Doug Marrone and Nathaniel Hackett decide to utilize CJ Spiller 40 snaps per game in running and passing situations. We can also assume they find a better option than Fitzpatrick at quarterback by way of free agency or the draft. For the optimist I'll even say Mike Pettine works with the defense and gets the most out of the unit. His hybrid scheme figures to look like the Jets or Ravens defense when they line up. If Pettine keeps opposing offense guessing, the Bills might be able to get some stops and hold opposing teams to less than 25 points per game. They haven't done that since 2009. Even if all these things come to fruition, the Bills are still a team with many needs to address. Buddy Nix has done an average job through all avenues in building a team that can produce on the field.
The Buffalo Bills are still quite far away from breaking the 13 year playoff drought. There are multiple factors that help me arrive at this stance. Even with great coaching this team isn't capable of much more than an 8-8 campaign with a roster like they have. Let me be clear in saying I do not expect great coaching from this staff, at least not right out of the blocks. Even still, the roster has gaping holes badly in need of plugging. There needs to be more than the plugging in some of those holes as well. I look at the wide receivers, linebackers, cornerbacks and safeties and wonder if some of them would start on any other team in the NFL.
We cannot debate how good Jairus Byrd and Stevie Johnson are. There is no debate; these guys are very good. Byrd is a top 10 safety and Johnson would be the best second wide-out in the league if he had another wide receiver opposite him that made defenses worry. Stephen Gilmore should be a solid corner in a handful of seasons. Gilmore might even grade out to be the next Antoine Winfield which would be more than accepted by the Bills faithful. Time will reveal just what Gilmore becomes. Beyond those three guys I cannot see much promise at these positions. Does anybody really think Donald Jones, David Nelson, and Brad Smith can be dependable week to week? Can you honestly say Nick Barnett, Kelvin Sheppard, and Bryan Scott are skillful and consistent linebackers at the NFL level? The Bills were so lacking at linebacker last season that Bryan Scott came down from his natural Safety position to play linebacker. It is also fair to say George Wilson could stand to replaced for a difference-maker at his position.
Although the team is in a much better place than it was 3 years ago, I would like the optimist to look at the two teams playing in Super Bowl XLVII. The San Francisco 49ers and the Baltimore Ravens both have a consistent gameplan with a clear direction. These teams primarily build through the draft, while adding some key pieces via free agency to round out their teams. Both teams have great players at the skill positions (RB,WR,TE,CB,S). The 49ers and Ravens play exceptional defense that can at times suffocate opposing offenses. They have vocal leaders that set a positive example for the younger players in the locker room (look no further than Ray Lewis and Patrick Willis). These teams are built for success in any environment, even if their quarterbacks play an average game. Now how many of those qualities apply to the Bills roster?
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