Super Mario?

Anthony Constantino

96 million dollars with 50 million guaranteed over 6 years of service. Those are the terms that were agreed to between Mario Williams and the Buffalo Bills on March 15th. With this agreement, Mario Williams became the highest paid defensive player in NFL history.

It serves as no surprise that Williams is considered the biggest signing in the history of the Buffalo Bills. Talking to Bills fans around Buffalo you can hear it in their voice; optimism. As if a massive weight has been lifted off their shoulders, they feel as though their team has earned NFL relevancy again. For the three days Mario Williams was in town, the eyes of NFL owners and fans alike were fixated on Buffalo. Bills fans were filled with anticipation, documenting every move he made during his visit to the Queen City via Twitter and Facebook.

However, I contest that this deal is not as incredible as the fans and media are making it out to be. Yes, it is the first top notch free agent to sign with Buffalo during the free agency era in football. Yes, he is expected to make a significant impact on the pass rush that tied for 27th in the league last season. And yes, the signing of Mario Williams may even entice future free agents to consider or pay a visit to Buffalo. All of these things cannot be ignored, but to look only at the positives is missing the bigger picture.

One of the best features of being a fan of a team is selective analysis. That is, a fan can choose to evaluate the decisions of a team they like while only focusing on the positive aspects. If something negative is released a fan can choose to ignore it, or try to put a positive spin on it. Fans do not have to look at anything other than the silver lining if they do not want to, it is their prerogative. Here are some of the facts that Bills fans have not considered just yet.

Under the current CBA there is an introduction of a cap floor. This designates a minimum amount of money a team has to spend out of the salary cap. Beginning in 2013, all NFL teams must spend at least 89% of the allotment. The Bills have routinely spent around 65% of their allotted cap space over the past ten years. This forces the organization to go out and spend more money than usual. This means that the money has to be spent somewhere. So what the Bills’ brass did is hand a significant portion of their allotment over to one player. Playing at his position, he cannot single-handedly turn around a franchise.

With 96 million dollars spread out over 6 years, Mario Williams’ salary will take up an average of 16 million per season. This is an enormous number to stomach for a defensive player in what has become an offense friendly league. But how impactful has Mario Williams been in his career thus far?

In Mario’s first five seasons (we will omit year six, in which he only played five games), he never topped 60 tackles in a season, and had only 230 in that time. Williams averaged just below 10 sacks per season (9.4) which amounts to less than one sack per game. In those years, the defense he played on was in the bottom third of the league each year in sacks.

These statistics could indicate that his presence on the field did not disrupt the blocking scheme enough to allow for his teammates to get sacks. The other explanation could be that his fellow defensive linemen in Houston were not capable of assisting in the pass rush. This would be hard to believe since they are NFL caliber players. They must have been able to succeed somewhere in order to be employed in the league.

The low number of sacks likely led to their high number of passing yards allowed per game each season; the Texans were never in the top half of the league in pass yards allowed per game in those five years. That also suggests that the defense was unable to create enough pressure to disrupt opposing quarterback’s rhythm. The impact of Mario Williams may not be as great as fans might be assuming. Hence, the signing has the potential to be a major let down.

The one question Bills’ faithful must mull over until the season’s start is whether or not the rest of the team can generate a pass rush, while Williams draws attention from opposing blockers. Most people assume that offenses will focus on neutralizing Mario Williams and try to make other pass rushers be the difference makers in games. There are more opportunities to add players to the team through the ongoing free agency period and the upcoming NFL Draft. There is no doubt that more players will be needed for the Bills to be considered contenders for a division crown, much less a championship run.